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如果保持7-8%的GDP增速,印度经济需多少年才能赶上中国

如果保持7-8%的GDP增速,印度经济需要多少年才能和中国一样强大


美国quora网友讨论:


译文来源:Quora中文网 http://www.quora123.com/life/2017-06-21/318.html



Abu Saquib, works at Stryker
Answered Jun 11

India need a lifetime to surpass china in term of various economical strength. i know most of the recent intellectual will not believe and i may attract some criticism here but what is true is true. I will try to make it short and crisp.

Lets compare some very basic individual basic factor which actually matter such as land, people.

India land area: 3.287 million km²

China land are: 9.597 million km²

Notice the area china have is more than 3 times, which India can never have until we invade some country and with present condition we cant.

Arm Force:

India: 1,325,000

China: 2,335,000 (here also china is twice the size, hiring this much force is beyong india immagination)

就经济实力而言,印度永远无法超过中国

也许知识分子不大愿意相信,也许我会招来一些批评,然而事实就是事实。

以下比较一些基本的数据:

印度国土面积:328.7万平方公里

中国国土面积:959.7万平方公里

注意,中国国土面积是是印度的3倍。这点是比不过的,除非我们入侵其它国家。

军队:

印度军队:132万人

中国军队:233.5万人

中国军队规模也是印度军队的两倍,养这么多军队也是印度无法想象的。


GDP:

notice in 1960 China was only 2 times the total Indian GDP but in 2015 China surpass 6 times the total GDP.

GDP:

1960年,中国GDP只是印度GDP的两倍,然而到了2015年,中国GDP已经是印度GDP的6倍了


And the last is GNI (Atlas method).

(The Atlas method is a method used by the World Bank to estimate the size of economies in terms of gross national income (GNI) in U.S. dollars. ... The resulting GNI in U.S. dollars is divided by the country's midyear population to obtain the GNI per capita)


Source: GNI, Atlas method (current US$)

I hope this will correct a lot of peoples misconception about India and China.

And it is not bad and bot good also. India is India and China is China and we both are growing for our-self not for competition. And if someone want to see where USA is in all this please refer to below GDP graph.

希望以上能纠正人们对印度和中国的误解。

印度是印度,中国是中国,我们都是为了自己发展,不是为了竞争。



 
Ling Guo, lives in China
Updated Jun 8

Do a simple math.

The GDP of China — $11,218,281 million

The GDP of India — $2,256,397 million

Say India grows by 8% per year, China grows by 5%, with anything else remaining the same:

2256397
∗(1+0.08)x=11218281∗(1+0.05)x

x=57

It takes 57 years in this case.

做一个简单的算术

中国GDP为11.218281万亿美元

印度GDP为2.256397万亿美元

假如印度每年经济增速为8%,中国保持5%,其他不变

2256397
∗(1+0.08)x=11218281∗(1+0.05)x

x=57

这种情况下,印度赶上中国要57年。

Say India grows by 8% per year, China doesn’t grow, with anything else remaining the same:

2256397
∗(1+0.08)x=11218281

x=20

It takes 20 years if China stops growing from now.

But the economy is much more complicated and these results don’t really mean anything.

假如印度GDP增速8%,而中国不发展,

2256397
∗(1+0.08)x=11218281

x=20

那么印度赶上中国需要20年。

然而经济是相当复杂的,这些结果没有任何意义。

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