Sanjit Kumar, Asst. Professor at Magadh University
Answered May 18
It will be China first, followed by India later.
Let me remind you Marshall Plan which directly establish America, a superpower after World War II.
This project costs approx $13.3 billion and completed within 4 years.
The amount was invested to rebuild war-devastated European regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, make Europe prosperous.
For the United States, the Marshall Plan provided markets for American goods, created reliable trading partners, and supported the development of stable democratic governments in Western Europe.
Now, lets discuss to Belt and Road Initiative
China already did a revolution in cheap manufacturing, so they need bigger market for their product.
Hence, the countries from which one belt-one road is passing through, their market will be over-captured by Chinese goods.
How China's 'Belt and Road' Compares to the Marshall Plan?
Marshall Plan stated that European countries being aided should accept U.S. investment and import U.S. goods.
Over time, the U.S. dollar has become a tool for stability. China is also seeking to increase the international use of its currency.
The endpoint of OBOR is located in Europe. It shows that China wishes to intensify relations with traditional U.S. allies in Western Europe, which in turn undermines U.S. influence in the region.
India position between all these drama.
India is pushing its own North–South Transport Corridor
Japan is expected to join the Indian foray into the expansion of Iran’s Chabahar port and the adjoining special economic zone.
In eastern Sri Lanka, India & Japan are expected to jointly expand the strategically located Trincomalee port. They are also likely to join hands to develop Dawei port along the Thai-Myanmar border.
Presently, China has a strength of $10.87 trillion where as India has $3 trillion.
It is expected to overcome China by 2050.
China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10 percent. Those days are over.
China’s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7 percent, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond.
Sustaining the growth of China’s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.
And, then India will start playing her role. So, China will become superpower but will not be able to sustain for long.
Thanks for reading such a long post.