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谁会成为下一个超级大国,印度还是中国?

Who will be the next superpower - India or China?

谁会成为下一个超级大国,印度还是中国?


美版知乎Quora网友讨论?


译文来源:Quora中文网 http://quora123.com/mil/2017-06-26/322.html



Sanjit Kumar, Asst. Professor at Magadh University
Answered May 18

It will be China first, followed by India later.

Let me remind you Marshall Plan which directly establish America, a superpower after World War II.

This project costs approx $13.3 billion and completed within 4 years.
The amount was invested to rebuild war-devastated European regions, remove trade barriers, modernize industry, make Europe prosperous.

中国会先崛起为超级大国,接着是印度

提醒你以前的马歇尔计划。二战后,马歇尔计划直接让美国成为了超级大国

该计划耗资大约133亿美元,4年内完成

这笔资金被用来重建被战争摧毁的欧洲地区,清除贸易障碍,建立现代化工业,让欧洲繁荣了起来。

For the United States, the Marshall Plan provided markets for American goods, created reliable trading partners, and supported the development of stable democratic governments in Western Europe.

Now, lets discuss to Belt and Road Initiative

China already did a revolution in cheap manufacturing, so they need bigger market for their product.
Hence, the countries from which one belt-one road is passing through, their market will be over-captured by Chinese goods.

对美国来说,马歇尔计划为美国商品提供了市场,建立了可靠的贸易伙伴,支撑了西欧的皿煮政府的稳定发展。

现在来讨论一带一路计划。

中国已经进行另一场低廉制造业的革命,需要为本国商品寻找更庞大的市场。

因此,一带一路经过的国家,他们的市场会被中国商品占领。

How China's 'Belt and Road' Compares to the Marshall Plan?

Marshall Plan stated that European countries being aided should accept U.S. investment and import U.S. goods.

Over time, the U.S. dollar has become a tool for stability. China is also seeking to increase the international use of its currency.
The endpoint of OBOR is located in Europe. It shows that China wishes to intensify relations with traditional U.S. allies in Western Europe, which in turn undermines U.S. influence in the region.

中国“一带一路”计划和马歇尔计划有什么不同?

马歇尔计划规定,接受援助的欧洲国家,应接受美国投资,并进口美国商品。

久而久之,美元成为了稳定的工具。

目前,中国也在寻求增加人民币的国际使用。

一带一路计划的终点是欧洲。

这表明,中国希望加强美国在西欧的传统盟友的关系

India position between all these drama.

印度在其中的位置。

India is pushing its own North–South Transport Corridor

印度正在追求自己的南北运输走廊。

Japan is expected to join the Indian foray into the expansion of Iran’s Chabahar port and the adjoining special economic zone.

In eastern Sri Lanka, India & Japan are expected to jointly expand the strategically located Trincomalee port. They are also likely to join hands to develop Dawei port along the Thai-Myanmar border.

日本预计会与印度一道参与伊朗恰巴哈尔港及其毗邻经济特区的扩大计划。

在东边的斯里兰卡,印度和日本有望联合扩大地处战略位置的亭可马里港口。

Declining Power:

Presently, China has a strength of $10.87 trillion where as India has $3 trillion.
It is expected to overcome China by 2050.

China experienced a meteoric rise in its economy, reaching years of continued growth in excess of 10 percent. Those days are over.

目前,中国经济规模为10.87万亿美元,而印度为3万亿美元

不过印度有望在2050年前超过中国

中国经济经历了一次迅速崛起,过去那些年头持续以两位数的速度增长。这样的好日子结束了。

China’s most recent quarterly growth was just under 7 percent, with projections continuing to decline over the next decade and beyond.

中国最近的经济增速不到7%,增速在未来10多年可能继续放缓。

Sustaining the growth of China’s military and economic power will become more difficult, and will soon begin a slow and potentially unrecoverable decline.

维持中国军事和经济发展会变得越来越困难,很快会开启一个缓慢而又不可恢复的衰退。

And, then India will start playing her role. So, China will become superpower but will not be able to sustain for long.

Thanks for reading such a long post.

到时候就是轮到印度登台亮相了

所以,中国会崛起为超级大国,不过不会长久。

谢谢

 





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