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Quora: 美国能打赢对华战争吗?

Can America win a war against China?

美国能打赢对华战争吗?

【美版知乎quora问答】

Sandeep Satone, works at HSBC Bank
Updated Sep 4
Hello ,
CAN AMERICA WIN ? Yes America will win for sure ! Why ? See below
America is NATO nation so AMERICA vs CHINA is 29 Countries vs CHINA. China will lose for sure.
See the defence budget of USA alone !

译文来源:三泰虎 http://jblasi.com/44224.html

1、美国是个北约成员国,美国vs中国,相当于29个国家vs中国。中国肯定会输。

2、看看美国国防预算!

1.jpg

China is no match to it !
War is not a solution to any problem . It will create problems and instability in the ASIAN region.
Peaceful negotiation and mutual co-operation is the only way to grow together.
Thanks

中国不是美国对手!

战争不是问题的解决办法,战争将造成亚洲地区不稳定。和平谈判与相互合作是共同发展的唯一途径。

 

Michael Reeves, worked at State Government of Victoria (2002-2008)
Answered Dec 31
Originally Answered: Would America win a war against China?
Yes the US would win easily and this is why. Despite US superiority in its military and that the US and its allies vastly outmatch China in most areas it is not conflict that will win the war.
It is control of resources or specifically energy. China imports 80% of its oil from the Persian Gulf. The US Navy controls the Persian Gulf, Arabian Sea and has a large presence in the Indian Ocean, it has dozens of bases throughout all the regions mentioned along with large ground and air forces, let alone naval.

对,美国能轻易获胜。尽管美国军事具有优势,而且美国及其盟友大多数领域都远超中国,但打仗并不是光取决于战场的输赢。

还要看对资源或特殊能源的控制。中国80%的石油进口自波斯湾。美国海军控制着波斯湾、阿拉伯海,在印度洋有着庞大的(军事)存在,在这些地区建立了数十个基地,有庞大的陆军和空军部署,更不用说海军了。

Without this oil supply the Chinese economy would collapse in a matter of weeks. China has no way presently to contest the oceans against the huge US forces present in this region let alone fight the US Navy on the open seas. While China has advantages 1500km from its main land due to land based missiles and aircraft. A blockade of Chinese oil 7000km away in the Persian Gulf results in a collapse of Chinas economy and China has very few military assets that can reach this far, nothing that can challenge the huge US military presence. Oil supplies from Russia can be easily cut with some missiles on the Chinese side of the border, other pipe lines or railways can also be hit which transport oil from international destinations, railways and pipelines don't move. China has no capability to do the same to the US, let alone the US has the majority of its oil supplies under its own feet or from Canada and Mexico. In pure energy supplies the US can conduct a long war while China needs a short sharp war prior to oil supplies running out.

没有石油供应,中国经济将在几周内崩溃。中国目前没有实力与驻扎在该地区的美国军队争夺海洋,更别说在公海上与美国海军作战了。凭借陆基导弹,中国在距离大陆1500公里的海洋内拥有优势。在波斯湾对7000公里外的中国石油运输实行封锁,导致中国经济崩溃,中国几乎没有军事资产能够到达这么远的地方,无法挑战美国庞大的军事存在。

可以轻易地在中国一侧用导弹切断俄罗斯的石油供应,从其他国际地区运输石油的管道或铁路也可能遭打击。中国没有能力对美国采取同样的行动,更别说美国在其周边或加拿大与墨西哥内拥有自己的石油供应。在纯能源供应方面,美国能维持长期战争,而中国必须赶在石油供应枯竭之前打一场短暂的激烈战争。

On top of this what would the loss of China’s exports markets mean, certainly the US market is gone. The EU would also be doubtful along with many of the other US allies which also happen to be Chinas biggest export markets. The US can also force the issue and institute a complete Naval blockade 3000 miles from Chinas coast and China can do very little to prevent this.

最重要的是,中国出口市场的损失意味着,美国市场肯定没了。欧盟以及美国的其他盟国也会对此表示怀疑,这些盟国恰巧也是中国最大的出口市场。美国也可以强行解决这一问题,并在距中国海岸3000英里的地方实施完全海上封锁,而中国将束手无策。

So China is now in a position that it cannot get the oil it needs to keep it’s economy running, let alone keep hundreds of millions Chinese employed. It also lose much of its export markets a double jeopardy. The US can keep most of its oil supply and a large part of its exports to Europe, however exports only make up 11% of US GDP. While China has a large reserve it will not last longer then 3 months if that. I'm sure US strategist know this, in fact the US can play defensive if they like, mustering there forces for months outside of Chinese military capabilities to hit them and launch a large offensive once they know Chinese oil reserves are hurting.

中国的处境是,无法获得维持经济运行所需的石油,更别提数亿中国人的就业问题了。美国可以保留大部分石油供应以及对欧的大部分出口。

尽管中国拥有庞大储备,不过一旦开战,这些储备维持不了超过3个月。我相信美国战略家知道这一点,事实上,如果美国愿意,可以采取防御性的策略,在中国军事能力之外的地方集结军队数月,打击他们,一旦中国石油储备被摧毁,就发动大规模攻势。

How long will the 200 million Chinese vehicles put up with no fuel to drive them. That's a lot of angry people, let alone the hundreds of millions who will be without work. Who will they blame as trains stop working, trucks transporting food stop working, good and services cease to move around the nation.

到时候,中国2亿辆汽车将无油可加。到时候,人们会怨声载道的,更不用说数亿失业者。当火车停运,运送食物的卡车跑不起来,物流无法流通时,他们会怪谁呢。

 

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