三泰虎

黎明报:与印度关系的正常化

Normalising ties with India

与印度关系的正常化

Munir Akram May 27, 2018

姆尼尔阿克兰, 2018月5月27日

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

作者为前巴基斯坦驻联合国大使

EVEN as Indian and Pakistani guns continue to thunder along the Line of Control in Kashmir, there are several signals of a desire on both sides to improve relations.

尽管印度和巴基斯坦在克什米尔控制线上的枪战从未停止,但双方都有希望改善两国关系的信号。

Most notably, Pakistan’s army chief has on several occasions articulated an openness to evolving a modus vivendi with India, dubbed the ‘Bajwa doctrine’. Recently, the Indian defence minister stated that such peace overtures from Pakistan will be reciprocated.

值得注意的是,巴基斯坦陆军参谋长曾在多个场合公开表示愿意与印度达成临时协议,这被称为“巴杰瓦主义”。最近,印度国防部长表示,巴基斯坦的这种和平提议将得到回报。

The Indian military attaché was invited to the Pakistan Day parade and accepted. Pakistan hosted India with other Shanghai Cooperation Organisation members to discuss regional terrorism. In September, Pakistan and India will participate in SCO joint counterterrorism exercises in Russia. Last month, Pakistan hosted a Track II dialogue with India.

印度使馆军事专员受邀参加巴基斯坦日游行,他们也接受了这一邀请。巴基斯坦主持下,与印度及其他上海合作组织成员一起,共同讨论了地区恐怖主义问题。今年9月,巴基斯坦和印度将参加在俄罗斯举行的上海合作组织联合反恐演习。上个月,巴基斯坦主持了与印度的第二轮对话。

For its part, Pakistan has consistently advocated resumption of the Composite (now Comprehensive) Dialogue with India. And while it was preoccupied with fighting terrorism within its territory and from across its western border, it made strategic sense for Pakistan to seek a calm eastern frontier.

就其本身而言,巴基斯坦一贯主张恢复与印度的复合对话(现在称为全面对话)。尽管巴基斯坦专注于打击其境内和西部边境的恐怖主义,但全面对话对于巴基斯坦安定东部边界具有战略意义。

A shift in India’s strategic posture could open the door to addressing, if not fully resolving, the major issues.

印度战略姿态的转变,或许能开启解决重大问题的大门,即使不能完全解决。

Unfortunately, since its inception, Narendra Modi’s BJP government made normalisation conditional on Pakistan’s disavowal of support to the Kashmiri freedom struggle and acceptance of culpability for Mumbai and other terrorist incidents in India. It evolved an enveloping strategy to destabilise Pakistan domestically, through sponsorship of Tehreek-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) terrorists and Baloch insurgents, and to isolate it internationally as a sponsor of terrorism.

不幸的是,纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)领导的印度人民党(BJP)政服自成立以来,就以巴基斯坦否认支持克什米尔自由斗争和承认为印度孟买和其他恐怖主义事件负责,作为两国关系正常化的条件。这样通过支持巴基斯坦塔利班(TTP)恐怖分子和俾路支叛乱分子,形成了一种破坏巴基斯坦国内稳定的包络战略,并将其作为恐怖主义的赞助者隔离在国际上。

Several developments may have shifted Indian calculations.

一些事态发展可能已经改变了印度的筹谋。

First, a significant convergence has emerged between Pakistan and major regional powers, Russia, China and Iran, on the need for a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan with the Afghan Taliban. India and the US were seen as spoilers.

首先,在谈判解决阿富汗与阿富汗塔利班问题上,巴基斯坦和主要的地区大国俄罗斯、中国和伊朗之间已经形成了重大共识。印度和美国被视为破坏者。

Second, despite Donald Trump’s anti-Pakistan rhetoric and insults, a US confrontation with Pakistan and its designation as a state sponsor of terrorism, widely anticipated by India, have not happened and appear highly unlikely. On the contrary, the US continues to rely on Pakistan’s cooperation to sustain its presence in Afghanistan and promote a political settlement with the Afghan Taliban.

其次,尽管有唐纳德•特朗普(Donald Trump)的反巴基斯坦言论和侮辱,美国与巴基斯坦的对峙,以及印度一度认为巴基斯坦是恐怖主义的支持者,但这都没有发生,而且看起来也不可能发生。相反,美国继续依赖与巴基斯坦的合作,以维持其在阿富汗的立场,并促进与阿富汗塔利班的政治和解。

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Third, after the Doklam stand-off last year, China offered India several olive branches — larger trade and investment, access to CPEC and, through it, to Central Asia and beyond, an intimate Xi-Modi summit. Afghan developments, American unpredictability and Chinese flexibility, appear to have inspired a policy recalibration in New Delhi to balance its vaunted strategic partnership with the US through more positive relations with China and Russia.

第三,在去年的洞朗对峙之后,中国多次向印度伸出了橄榄枝——更大的贸易和投资,进入中巴经济走廊(CPEC),并以此进入中亚及更远的地区,以及xi与莫迪(xi - modi)的亲密会谈。阿富汗的发展、美国的不可预测性和中国的灵活性,似乎了激发了新德里的政策调整,通过与中国和俄罗斯建立更积极的关系,来平衡其与美国之间大肆鼓吹的战略伙伴关系。

Fourth, India failed in its quest to destabilise or isolate Pakistan.

Pakistan’s several military operations in Fata and actions in Balochistan have succeeded in containing cross-border terrorism sponsored by India from Afghanistan. Cross-border attacks will be further restricted once Pakistan fully fences the Pak-Afghan border. Likewise, India has little hope now of isolating Pakistan given the central role it is expected to play in promoting a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan and the political convergence that has emerged among Pakistan, Russia, China and Iran on Afghanistan and terrorism.

第四,印度未能实现动摇或孤立巴基斯坦的目的。

巴基斯坦在联邦直辖部落地区和俾路支斯坦的的几次军事行动成功遏制了印度从阿富汗发起的跨境恐怖主义。一旦巴基斯坦全面封锁巴基斯坦和阿富汗边境,跨境袭击将进一步受到限制。同样,印度几乎没有孤立巴基斯坦的可能,因为巴基斯坦在促进阿富汗谈判解决问题上发挥的核心作用,以及巴基斯坦、俄罗斯、中国和伊朗在阿富汗和恐怖主义问题上的政治融合。

Finally, India has been unable to suppress the ongoing popular revolt of the Kashmiri people for over two years. It may calculate that opening a dialogue with Pakistan could help to end the revolt.

最后,在过去两年内,印度一直无法镇压克什米尔的民众起义。与巴基斯坦展开对话或许有助于结束叛乱。

For Pakistan, the most critical issue in any normalisation process will be (and has always been) Kashmir. No government or leader in Pakistan will be able to normalise relations with India while it continues a campaign of brutal suppression in India-held Kashmir (IHK).

对于巴基斯坦来说,在任何正常化进程中最关键的问题都是(而且一直是)克什米尔问题。巴基斯坦政服或领导人无法实现与印度关系正常化,如果在印控克什米尔地区(IHK)的残酷镇压在继续进行。

If the past is any guide, India’s effort will be to focus any dialogue with Pakistan on terrorism and press for the elimination of pro-Kashmiri militant groups in Pakistan (Lashkar-e-Taiba, Jaish-e-Mohammad, Hizbul Mujahideen) and the incarceration of their leaders. Islamabad would find it difficult to act against these groups, especially the Hizb, which is not internationally outlawed, while Indian suppression continues in IHK. In the context of terrorism, Pakistan would obviously raise India’s sponsorship of the TTP and Baloch insurgents.

根据过去的经验,印度的努力将集中于与巴基斯坦就恐怖主义问题进行对话,并敦促消灭巴基斯坦的亲克什米尔武装组织(虔诚军、穆罕默德军、真主穆斯林游击队)以及监禁他们的领导人。伊斯兰堡将会发现很难对这些团体采取行动,特别是真主穆斯林游击队,目前并未被国际社会禁止,然而印度继续在印控克什米尔地区对其进行镇压。在恐怖主义的背景下,巴基斯坦显然会提高印度对巴基斯坦塔利班分支和俾路支叛乱者的支持。

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Contrary to simplistic analyses, India’s capacity to impose terrorist pressure on Pakistan is not unlimited. Pakistan can substantially neutralise India’s sponsorship of the TTP and the Balochistan Liberation Army through pressure on Kabul, negotiations with the US, fencing the border, political accommodation of Baloch grievances, Fata reforms and, if needed, direct action against terrorist bases. Pakistan does not need Indian concessions to eliminate cross-border terrorism from Afghanistan. Nor does it need to compromise its position on Kashmir to do so.

与简单化分析相反,印度对巴基斯坦施加恐怖主义压力的能力是有限的。巴基斯坦可以通过对喀布尔施压、与美国谈判、加强边境防卫、与俾路支进行政治和解、联邦直辖部落地区改革,以及必要时对恐怖主义基地采取直接行动,以此大幅消除印度对巴基斯坦塔利班分支和俾路支解放军的支持。巴基斯坦根本无需妥协其在克什米尔地区的立场。

However, despite the false starts of the past, it is possible that in the midst of the current global strategic flux, India may have decided that its national interests would be better served by playing a positive role in the emerging Eurasian security and economic structures, epitomised by the SCO, rather than serving as America’s cat’s paw. If there is indeed such a shift in India’s strategic posture, it could open the door to addressing, if not fully resolving, the major issues between Pakistan and India.

然而,尽管过去有些错误的开端,在当前全球战略动荡的局势下,印度或许可以更好维护自身的国家利益,通过在新兴欧亚安全和经济机构中更好发挥积极作用,比如具有代表性的上海合作组织,而不是充当美国的傀儡。如果印度的战略姿态确实发生了这样的转变,它可能会为解决巴基斯坦和印度之间的重大问题打开大门,即使这并不能完全解决问题。

Reciprocal assurances can be negotiated on terrorism, the non-use of force and the pacific settlement of disputes. Some issues, such as Siachen and Sir Creek, can be quickly resolved. Existing confidence-building measures could be enlarged, eg by agreeing to limits on force and weapons deployments and elimination of the possibility of surprise attacks and preemptive strikes.

可以就恐怖主义问题进行协商,不使用武力以及和平解决争端。一些问题,比如如锡亚琴和爵士湾问题,可以迅速解决。可以加强现有的建立信任的措施,例如同意限制武力和武器部署,消除可能发起的突然袭击和先发制人的攻击。

India’s participation in CPEC could be agreed without prejudice to Pakistan or India’s positions on the Jammu and Kashmir dispute. However, India would need to extend Pakistan reciprocal transit rights to Nepal and Bangladesh.

在不损害巴基斯坦或印度在查谟和克什米尔争端的立场的前提下,同意印度参与中巴经济走廊。然而,印度需要同意尼泊尔和孟加拉国与巴基斯坦之间的互惠过境权。

Expansion of bilateral trade could be mutually beneficial so long as Pakistan is provided assurances against deindustrialisation by subsidised Indian exports.

通过印度出口作为补充,巴基斯坦获得去工业化保障,双边贸易的扩大可以是互惠互利的。

Water scarcity is a critical threat to both countries; they need to build on the Indus Waters Treaty to avert a water crisis that may become the spark of a future conflict.

缺水是两国面临的一个严重威胁,他们需要建立《印度河用水条约》,以避免可能成为未来冲突导火索的用水危机。

It remains to be seen if the initial Pakistan-India overtures will lead to dialogue and whether this can be sustained. The endeavour to normalise Pakistan-India relations is like a second marriage: a triumph of hope over experience. But no one can be resigned to accept the alternative: continued turmoil in South Asia and the ever-present danger of a war between two nuclear weapons states.

巴基斯坦和印度最初的提议是否会促成对话,以及这能否持续下去,还有待观察。巴基斯坦与印度关系正常化的努力就像第二次婚姻:幻想战胜经验。但是,没有人能够接受这样的选择:南亚持续动荡,以及两个核武器国之间始终存在的战争危险。

The writer is a former Pakistan ambassador to the UN.

Published in Dawn, May 27th, 2018

作者是前巴基斯坦驻联合国大使。

2018年5月27日,《黎明报》出版。

巴基斯坦黎明报读者的评论

来源:http://jblasi.com/45102.html

外文:https://www.dawn.com

SATT

a day ago

Things are going as usual.

一切照常进行

 

Rahul Kumar

a day ago

Lot of self imagination and far from ground reality.

大部分都是自我想象,不切实际

 

Bismullah khan

a day ago

Colour blind analysis as usual.

像往常一样,色盲分析

 

Vimal

a day ago

According to the author Pakistan will rule the world in next few months if not weeks.

根据作者的说法,巴基斯坦将在未来几个月甚至几周内统治世界。

 

TheIndian

a day ago

Day dreaming at its best.

白日做梦

 

Hope

a day ago

Great analysis, Somehow Mr. Modi portrays himself as a tough man for domestic politics. Indians as a whole do not like him, and it is a matter of time that India will be back on dialogue table with Pakistan. Can India live in peace with Pakistan? that is a question to be answered by Indian politicians.

伟大的分析。不知怎么的,莫迪自称是国内政治的强硬派。印度人都不喜欢他,印度将回到与巴基斯坦的对话桌上,这只是一个时间问题。印度能与巴基斯坦和平相处吗? 这是印度政治家应该回答的问题。

 

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