三泰虎

印媒: 莫迪在崛起的中国和不确定的美国间走钢索

PM Modi threads path between rising China and uncertain US

莫迪总理在崛起的中国和不确定的美国间走钢索

HIGHLIGHTS

PM Modi navigated carefully between the two regional military powers

He studiously avoided any mention of the US, Japan and Australia — a grouping known as the Quad — in his speech

He hammered the kind of protectionism currently practiced by the US, both of which were sure to satisfy Chinese delegates

简讯:

莫迪总理在中美两大军事强国之间谨慎行事。

在演说中莫迪刻意避免提到“四方安全对话”,这是由美国、日本、印度、澳大利亚组成对话会议。

莫迪抨击了美国目前实行的贸易保护主义,这两点想必会让中国代表团感到满意。

US defense secretary James Mattis described India as the “fulcrum’’ of security in the Indo-Pacific region as he traveled this week to an annual security conference in Singapore, attended for the first time by an Indian leader.

本周美国国防部长詹姆斯•马蒂斯(James Mattis)在参加新加坡一年一度的安全峰会时,称印度为印太地区“安全支点”。这次会议首次有印度领导人出席。

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But, if Mattis was hoping that Prime Minister Narendra Modi would use the platform to join the US, Japan and Australia — a grouping known as the Quad — in a more muscular challenge to China’s regional expansion, he was disappointed. Instead, India’s strongest leader in decades navigated carefully between the two regional military powers.

若马蒂斯希望印度总理纳伦德拉•莫迪(Narendra Modi)利用这一平台加入美国、日本和澳大利亚(由美国、日本、印度、澳大利亚组成的四方安全对话,简称“Quad”)的行列,以更强硬的方式对抗中国的区域扩张,那么他失望了。印度数十年来最强大的领导人在中美两大区域军事力量之间谨慎行事。

Modi studiously avoided any mention of the Quad in his speech, and he hammered the kind of protectionism currently practiced by the US, both of which were sure to satisfy Chinese delegates.

在演说中莫迪刻意避免提到“四方安全对话”,抨击了美国目前实行的贸易保护主义,这两点想必会让中国代表团感到满意。

“Asia and the world will have a better future when India and China work together in trust and confidence, sensitive to each other’s interests,” Modi told defense ministers and military officials assembled for the Shangri-La Dialogue, an event organized by the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.

莫迪对出席香格里拉对话的各国防长和军官表示:“当印度和中国共建信任和信心,对彼此利益敏感时,亚洲和世界将会拥有更美好的未来。”香格里拉对话由

总部位于英国伦敦的国际战略研究所主办。

He did echo US appeals for “freedom of navigation, unimpeded commerce and peaceful settlement of disputes in accordance with international law.” And he attacked governments that put other nations under “impossible burdens of debt.” Both were likely references to China for its behavior in the disputed South China Sea and its Belt and Road Initiative infrastructure projects -- which can come courtesy of large loans — in other countries.

莫迪的确回应了美国的呼吁“航行自由、贸易畅通、根据国际法和平解决争端”

同时他也抨击那些将其他国家置于“无法承受的债务负担”之下的政服。这两点疑指中国在有争议的中国南海的某些行为,及其倡导的“一带一路”基础设施项目,后者势必会给其他国家带来巨额贷款。

Yet, Modi has done something of a turnaround on China in recent weeks, a far cry from his ground-breaking shift to deepen engagement with the US when he came to power in 2014, which was accompanied by a show at home of standing up to China’s rise with a more robust "act east" policy.

然而,最近几周莫迪对中国的态度做出转变。2014年上台后他一方面深化与美国的接触,一方面在国内推出强硬的“东进”政策以对抗对中国的崛起。

Tensions came to a head last summer when Indian and Chinese troops engaged in a standoff over a long-running border dispute. To embrace a more proactive India, the US rebranded its Asia-Pacific policy as “Indo-Pacific + ,” a change that fuels Chinese concerns about containment.

去年夏天,中印两国军队因长期的边境争端陷入僵局,两国关系一度紧张到了极点。为了使印度更加积极主动,美国将其亚太政策更名为“印太+”政策,这一变化加剧了中国对遏制政策的担忧。

“The organizers of the Shangri-La Dialogue have been waiting for Modi for a while. India is seen as the linchpin for a longer term coalition to confront China,” said Manoj Joshi, a distinguished fellow at the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi. “Changing Asia-Pacific to Indo-Pacific was a means of getting Indian military capacity into the equation.”

“香格里拉对话的主办方恭候莫迪多时。印度被视为长期对抗中国之联盟的关键。”新德里观察员研究基金会的杰出研究员马努基乔希称,“将亚太地区转变为印太地区,是将印度军事实力纳入考虑的一种方式。”

“Modi gave a positive assessment of China-Indian relations in his speech,” Lieutenant General He Lei, who was leading the Chinese delegation, told state-run China Central Television afterward Friday. Modi’s speech was constructive and reflected a strong outlook for relations between the two countries, he added.

“莫迪在讲话中对中印关系给予了积极评价”,中国代表团团长何雷中将周五在接受中国中央电视台采访时表示。莫迪的讲话具有建设性,反映了两国关系的良好前景。

Next week, Modi will travel to China again, for a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, a security body dominated by China and Russia that India joined as a full member last year.

下周,莫迪将再次访问中国,参加上海合作组织峰会。上海合作组织是一个由中国和俄罗斯主导的安全机构,印度在去年成为该组织的正式会员。

For some, the change is real, driven by a growing recognition that India simply lacks the economic and military capacity to compete with China, combined with growing uncertainty over the reliability of the U.S.

对一些人来说,变化是真实存在的,原因是越来越多的人认识到,印度缺乏与中国竞争的经济和军事能力,同时对美国的可靠性也越来越不确定。

“Reality has hit home’’ when it comes to measuring up to China’s power, said Kanti Prasad Bajpai, director of the Center on Asia and Globalisation at Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy. China’s military budget is more than three times as large as India’s, and its economy almost five times as big.

新加坡李光耀公共政策学院亚洲与全球化研究中心主任普拉萨德巴杰派表示,在衡量中国实力时“现实已经击中要害”。中国的军事预算是印度的三倍多,经济规模几乎是印度的五倍。

“Modi has simply understood that after a certain point India is not in a position to bear its fangs to China, especially given the unreliability of the U.S. under Trump,’’ he said.

“莫迪明白,从某种程度上来说,印度没有能力对中国采取强硬态度,尤其是考虑到特朗普领导下的美国并不可靠。”他说到。

The raw spending numbers may even underestimate the disparity in hard power between the world’s two most populous nations. Whereas China has plowed resources into developing and buying high-tech weapons, India spends as much as two-thirds of its defense budget on routine expenses such as personnel. In recent years, the percentage of the budget spent on capital investment has fallen.

原始支出数据甚至可能低估了两个人口大国之间的硬实力差距。中国已经投入大量资源开发和购买高科技武器,而印度却将高达三分之二的国防预算用于诸如人员等日常开支。近年来,用于资本投资的预算比例有所下降。

When it comes to competing economically for the loyalties of countries in the region, the gap is even wider. India has no response to China’s Belt and Road program, + according to Syed Munir Khasru, director of the Institute for Policy, Advocacy and Governance, an international think tank headquartered in Bangladesh.

当涉及在经济上争夺该地区其他国家的忠诚时,差距甚至更大。据总部位于孟加拉国的国际智库--政策宣传和治理研究所所长Syed Munir Khasru说,印度没有对中国的“一带一路”计划做出任何回应。

“India has a lot of soft power, with rich history, art and culture, Bollywood and its vibrant democracy and so on,’’ Khasru said by phone. “But China has cash power.”

“印度有很多软实力,有丰富的历史、艺术和文化、宝莱坞和充满活力的皿煮等等,”Khasru在电话中说,“但中国资金雄厚。”

For others, though, the change is only one of optics, geared to the coming election. The security establishment remains alarmed by Chinese military expansion, in particular by signs it is looking for footholds in the Indian Ocean, which India has always seen as its preserve, said Rahul Roy-Chaudhury, who heads the South Asia program at IISS. Modi is simply seeking to ensure tensions don’t flare up for the next year, he said.

然而,对其他人来说,这种变化只是一种视觉效应,与即将到来的选举有关。“安全机构对中国的军事扩张仍然感到震惊,特别是在一直被印度视为其保护区的印度洋上,有迹象表明中国正在此处寻找据点。”国际战略研究所南亚项目负责人拉胡尔•罗伊-乔杜里)表示。“莫迪只是想确保紧张局势不会在明年爆发。”他说到。

At the same time, India doesn’t want to let the U.S. draw it into a confrontation with China over the South China Sea, where China’s territorial claims cross over with nations such as Vietnam and the Philippines. India has always been leery of freedom-of-navigation operations -- where ships sail through areas of contention to make a point -- and of developing the Quad into a security-focused organization.

与此同时,印度不希望美国将其卷入中国南海问题与中国发生冲突。在中国南海,中国的领土主张涉及越南和菲律宾等国。印度一直对航行自由持怀疑态度——船只驶过争议区域来表明一个观点——将“四方安全对话”发展成一个以安全为重点的组织。

“Modi,’’ said Roy-Chaudhury, “is relentlessly pragmatic.’’

“莫迪非常务实”罗伊-乔杜里说到。

印度时报网友评论:

来源:http://jblasi.com/45161.html

外文:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com

Biranchi Narayan Acharya-Cuttack-17 hours ago

Yes, Modi''s foreign policy & diplomacy is excellent.

莫迪的对外政策和外交手腕都非常出色。

 

Bijay3364 Bijay-Noida-16 hours ago

Vote for MODI in 2019 else Hindu will be in second grade citizen.

2019年投票给莫迪,否则印度教徒将沦为二等公民。

 

Crazyfrog-17 hours ago

this is certainly right diplomatic stance taken by India. No need to take sides and appease US, after all China is a neighbour and its better to have a friendly neighbourhood with China and Russia than with US. US foreign policies keep changing with times. Look how closely the Europe is except for Britain and Turkey

这无疑是印度采取的正确外交姿态。没有必要偏袒任何一方,安抚美国,毕竟中国是近邻,与中国和俄罗斯友好相处比与美国要好。美国外交政策随时在变。看看除了英国和土耳其,欧洲国家是多么的紧密。

 

sanjoy-15 hours ago

We need to be economically strong with strong leader & determination I.e. why I like Modi.

我们需要有强大的经济,强大的领袖和决心,这就是我喜欢莫迪的原因。

 

Hemant Pursnani-Mumbai-16 hours ago

MODI = MAN OF DEFINITVE INTELLEIGENCE,

Give him 10 more years, Indians will travel to almost all countries visa free.

莫迪是个智者。再给他10年时间,印度人到大部分国家都可以免签了。

 

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