三泰虎

美媒: 中国何以在中美全面贸易战中“占尽上风”

Why China “holds all the aces” in a full-blown US-China trade war

中国何以在中美全面贸易战中“占尽上风”

The Trump administration announced on Friday it will impose a 25 percent tariff on up to $50 billion in Chinese goods in an effort to protect U.S. intellectual property and technology.

China in retaliation said it will introduce taxation measures of the same scale and strength.

The objective is to reduce the size of the U.S.--China trade deficit from an estimated $370 billion to $200 billion by 2020.

The administration says these alleged IP appropriations along with corporate espionage have cost the U.S. economy between $225 to $600 billion a year.

While this may hurt China in the short-term, it has other markets to sell to in Asia and elsewhere.

timg.jpg

特朗普政服在上周五宣布,将对500亿美元中国商品征收高达25%的关税,以保护美国的知识产权和技术。

中国表示将采取同样规模和力度的税收措施作为报复。

美国政服的目标是,到2020年将中美贸易逆差额从目前估算的3700亿美元降至2000亿美元。

美国政服称,知识产权盗用和商业间谍活动每年给美国经济造成的损失在2250到6000亿美元。

虽然这可能在短期内伤害中国,但中国在亚洲和其他地方也有市场。

On Friday the Trump administration announced it will impose a 25 percent tariff on up to $50 billion in Chinese goods in an effort to protect U.S. intellectual property and technology. The decision brought an immediate backlash from Beijing. China in retaliation said it will introduce taxation measures of the same scale and strength. As the world's two superpowers inch closer to a trade war, market experts are asking: Is this a game the United States can win?

上周五,特朗普政服宣布将对高达500亿美元的中国商品征收25%的关税,以保护美国的知识产权和技术。这一决定立即招致北京方面的强烈反对。中国表示将采取同样规模和力度的税收措施作为报复。随着这两个世界超级大国逐渐接近贸易战,市场专家们表示疑问:这是一场美国能够打赢的游戏吗?

I suspect the real answer is twofold: In part, the president wants to be seen as reversing the loss of jobs and intellectual property to China between 2001 and, say, 2010. But since that horse has left the barn, he needs some other animals to round up.

我认为真正的答案可能是双重的:在某种程度上,特朗普希望这被视为是在扭转2001年至2010年期间就业机会和知识产权流向中国的局面。既然损失已成定局,他需要在其他地方来找补。

His stated objective is to reduce the size of the U.S–China trade deficit from an estimated $370 billion to $200 billion by 2020.

他宣称的目标是,到2020年将中美贸易逆差额从目前估计的3700亿美元降至2000亿美元。

There are two obvious ways to play this: (1) China could buy more U.S. goods and services, and/or (2) America could buy fewer Chinese goods and services. Both come with drawbacks for the U.S. economy and the American people. It is hard for U.S. companies to ramp up to export more to China when they are operating at full capacity and have close to no unemployment.

有两种明显的途径:(1)中国增加对美国商品和服务的进口;(2)美国减少对中国商品和服务的进口。这两种对美国经济和人民都不利。当美国企业满负荷运转并且几乎没有人失业的情况下,也很难扩大对中国的出口。

But before evaluating the policy prescriptions for this problem, we must first consider the starting point, which is flawed. The current $370 billion deficit estimate does not account for value-added. When looking at the value-added content of Chinese exports, the U.S. deficit with China is actually only half of what it seems. And if we then add back the U.S. surplus in "invisibles" and how much money the United States brings back from investments in China, the U.S.–China deficit shrinks from 2 percent of U.S. GDP to 0.8 percent, a report from Oxford Economics revealed.

但在对这一问题的政策处方进行评估之前,我们必须首先考虑到其起始点是有纰漏的。目前估算的3700亿美元贸易逆差额并没有考虑附加值问题。从中国出口产品的附加值来看,美国对中国的贸易逆差实际上只有看上去的一半。牛津经济研究院的一份报告显示,如果我们把美国的“无形贸易”盈余和在中国的投资所带来的收益加进来,美国对中国的贸易逆差将从占美国GDP的2%降至0.8%。。

In the case of the Apple iPhone, this means that China's exports balance accounts for the full $500 iPhone value, when China adds only approximately $15 to $30 of the value to the phone. Most of the iPhone value accretes to Samsung in Korea ($150) and to Apple — the brand owner and engineer. This highlights how the normal accounting of trade flows is inherently distorted under the current trade-deficit estimates. So maybe the deck has only 25 not 52 cards.

以苹果手机为例,这就意味着中国的出口差额达500美元,足抵得上苹果手机本身的价值,但中国仅仅附加了大约15到30美元的价值。苹果手机的大部分价值和韩国三星(150美元)及其品牌所有者和工程师--苹果公司共生并存。这就说明,在当前估算的贸易逆差额中,正常的贸易流量核算本质上被曲解了。所以就好比这副牌实际只有25张而不是52张。

The iPhone example also points to an area of weakness in the president's policy prescription: If the United States introduces tariffs on China's high-tech goods, U.S. companies and consumers could indirectly end up footing part of the bill. This is because the high-tech industries that Trump's tariffs are focused on is where Chinese value-added has the lowest share. If Trump were really interested in impacting the true trade imbalance and not just the misleading headline estimate, he would introduce tariffs on those sectors where China's value-added is highest. This would include sectors like textiles, where 75 percent of value-added is really "made in China."

苹果的例子还指出了特朗普政策处方中的一个弱点:如果美国对中国的高科技产品征收关税,美国公司和消费者可能会间接承担部分代价。因为特朗普的关税措施重点关注的高科技产业是中国附加值占比最低的行业。如果特朗普真的有意扭转真正的贸易失衡,而非那些误导性的逆差估算,他应该对那些中国附加值最高的行业征收关税,比如纺织等行业,其中75%的附加值实际上是“中国制造”。

This brings us back to the president's other objective, which is to gain political credit by addressing historical areas of imbalance in the U.S.–China trade relationship. A key area of focus here is China's appropriation of the intellectual property (IP) of American businesses. This comes from three activities: corporate espionage, cybertheft and technology in exchange for market access.

这让我们回到特朗普总统的另一个目标,那就是通过解决中美贸易关系中失衡的领域来获得政治信誉。这里重点关注的是中国对美国企业知识产权的盗用,主要来自三种活动:商业间谍、网络盗窃和以市场准入换取技术。

The latter results from a longstanding Chinese policy that requires any foreign company wishing to do business in China to first form a joint venture with a Chinese firm. A common complaint about these joint ventures is that they open the door for Chinese companies potentially to steal trade secrets and then use that IP to build and grow Chinese industries in everything from cars and phones to medicine.

后者源于中国的一项长期政策,即要求任何希望在中国开展业务的外国公司首先与中国企业组建合资企业。对于这些合资企业的普遍抱怨是,它们为中国企业窃取商业机密创造了机会,然后利用这些知识产权,在汽车、手机、医药等各个领域建立和发展中国产业。

The U.S. government estimates that these alleged IP appropriations, along with direct corporate espionage, which go back as far as the 1990s, have cost the U.S. economy a lot, somewhere between $225 billion to $600 billion a year. China indeed appears to have been the better poker player.

美国政服估算,这些所谓的知识产权盗用以及早在上世纪90年代就存在的直接商业间谍活动,给美国经济造成了巨大损失,每年的损失在2,250亿至6,000亿美元之间。中国似乎确实是更好的“扑克玩家”。

While these are valid concerns that should be addressed, it's too little too late. The truth is, China no longer needs these joint-venture rules in many industries, with several sectors and companies already competitive with their counterparts in the United States. In fact, in April 2018 China agreed to ease its rules on foreign auto companies operating in China, a clear signal that the quality of Chinese cars, including autonomous and electric vehicles, is rapidly increasing. It also just announced that foreigners would no longer need specific permissions to invest; they would just be prohibited from investing in a "negative list" of industries.

尽管这些都是需要解决的合理问题,但这还远远不够而且也太晚了。事实是,中国不再需要在许多行业实施这些合资规定,因为一些行业和公司已经在与美国同行竞争。事实上,2018年4月,中国同意放宽对在华经营的外国汽车公司的规定,这就是一个明确信号,表明包括自动驾驶和电动汽车在内的中国汽车的质量正在迅速提高。中国刚刚还宣布,外国人将不再需要特定的投资许可,他们将被禁止在任何“负面清单”的行业进行投资。

What is China trying to accomplish?

For China a trade war with the United States is likely to be more like the loss of a five-of-spades than the queen-of-hearts. China exports more than $2 trillion of goods a year, only about $400 to $500 billion of which goes to the United States. (On a value-added basis, only two-thirds of that is "made in China".) While the United States is indeed China's biggest trading partner, China has plenty of other markets to sell to, including the increasingly wealthy regions of Southeast Asia and India.

中国想要实现什么?

对中国来说,与美国的贸易战可能更像是失去了五个黑桃,而不是红星皇后。中国每年出口商品超过2万亿美元,其中只有4000到5000亿美元流向美国。(按附加值计算,其中只有三分之二是“中国制造”。)虽然美国确实是中国最大的贸易伙伴,但中国还有很多其他市场可供出售,包括日益富裕的东南亚地区和印度。

China also has made significant inroads into Latin America and Africa via its funding of major government-sponsored and private infrastructure projects, an investment that could pay significant dividends down the road, since these potential consumers would already be familiar with many Chinese brands.

通过资助大型政服支持的和私营的基础设施项目,中国还在拉美和非洲取得了重大进展。这一投资可能会在未来带来重大回报,因为这些潜在消费者可能已经熟悉了许多中国品牌。

"China exports more than $2 trillion of goods a year, only about $400 to $500 billion of which goes to the United States."

“中国每年出口商品超过2万亿美元,其中只有大约4000到5000亿美元流向美国。”

The early results show this plan is paying off and China is already emerging as a global leader in AI, renewable energy and electric vehicles, among other sectors. This technological advancement is tied to the recent trade talks in that China is increasingly incentivized to protect its own IP rather than trying to steal foreign IP. We are reaching the critical crossover point in China where the return on IP theft is falling toward zero and the return on IP protection may soon rise above zero.

初步结果显示,这一计划正在取得成效,中国已成为人工智能、可再生能源和电动汽车等领域的全球领导者。这种技术进步与最近的贸易谈判有关,中国愈发鼓励保护自己的知识产权,而不是试图窃取外国知识产权。在中国,我们正接近一个关键的交叉点,知识产权盗窃的回报率正趋于零,知识产权保护的回报率可能很快就会突破零。

The reality is that many of the Trump administration's articulated demands are things that China is already doing, albeit at a somewhat slower pace. The United States wants China to buy more American goods and services — and so does China. Trump wants to impose stiff tariffs to prevent China from flooding the American market with increasingly less expensive technological products, like smartphones, computers and related accessories, which collectively comprise China's biggest exports to the United States. And China agrees — they want to export higher value-added goods, especially those with a high innovation content. Interests are much more aligned than either country wants to admit.

现实情况是,特朗普政服的许多明确要求中国已经在做了,尽管步伐有点慢。美国希望中国购买更多的美国商品和服务,中国也是如此。特朗普希望征收高额关税,以防止越来越便宜的中国技术产品涌入美国市场,比如智能手机、电脑和相关配件,这些是中国对美国出口额最大的产品。中国同意——他们也想出口高附加值的产品,特别是那些高创新含量的产品。两国的利益还是非常一致的。

The Chinese gover*ment believes the problem they are trying to solve is how to be a vibrant economy over the next 20-plus years and to be the global leader in dynamic industries with technology self-sufficiency.

中国认为,他们正在努力解决的问题是,如何在未来20多年成为一个充满活力的经济体,如何在技术自给自足的动态产业中成为全球领军者。

On the other hand, the United States has not acted as if the problem they are trying to solve is how to create a dynamic economy based on innovation that keeps the United States vibrant over the next 20 or 30 years. It looks a bit more like the United States is trying to improve domestic polling numbers before the midterm elections in November 2018.

另一方面,美国并没有表现出他们试图解决的问题是如何在创新的基础上创造一个充满活力的经济体,使美国在未来二三十年保持活力。美国更像是试图在2018年11月中期的大选前改善国内民调数字。

—By Teresa Barger, co-founder and CEO of emerging markets activist fund Cartica Management

本文作者:特里萨•巴格(Teresa Barger),新兴市场维权基金Cartica Management的联合创始人兼首席执行官

来源:http://jblasi.com/45317.html

文章来自:https://www.cnbc.com/2018/06/15/why-china-holds-all-the-aces-in-a-full-blown-us-china-trade-war.html

美国雅虎读者的评论:

Saint Paul yesterday

God bless President Trump

愿上帝保佑特朗普总统

 

Joe Myesterday

In a trade war with the US China cannot win. China buys very little from the US. How can China retaliate? The only thing that China buys in large quantities is T-bills, which they buy to keep the $ high relative to their currency so that their products are cheaper in US $'s. The US makes it easy for the Chinese by running large Federal Deficits that need to be funded with borrowed money. US citizens do not save enough to lend to the US government. Lowering Federal deficits is hard to do politically. Increasing the saving rates of Americans is also hard to do and has negative impact on the economy. Probably the easiest solution is to find an alternative to source low cost products. The obvious alternative is India, which is embarking on an aggressive development program. If push comes to shove in trade China will be the big loser but it will not happen overnight.

在中美贸易战中,中国不可能获胜。中国从美国的进口很少,如何报复?中国唯一大量购买的是美国国债,主要是为了保持美元对其本国货币的高汇率,这样他们的产品在美元汇率下会更便宜。美国通过运作高额联邦赤字,为中国提供了便利,这些赤字需要用借来的钱来融资。美国公民的储蓄不足。所以很难以政治手段降低联邦赤字。提高美国人的储蓄率也难以实现,况且这对经济也有负面影响。或许最简单的解决方案是找到低成本产品的新来源。显然印度就是替代方案,该国正在启动一项积极的发展计划。如果贸易事态恶化,中国将成为大输家,但这不会在一夜之间发生。

 

Terry booth yesterday

China is an autocracy, not a capitalist democracy. It is a strategic thinker, planning for the long term. It is stealing our manufacturing techniques and technologies that we have developed, costing us trillions of dollars over time. Now, they are beginning to flex their military muscles with some of these thefts. China is expansive and an empire builder. They are insidious, and determined. China is long term, the most dangerous adversary the West has.

中国是一个专制国家,不是资本主义皿煮国家。擅长战略性思考,着眼于长期规划。它正在窃取我们开发好的生产工艺和技术,随着时间的推移,我们将损失上万亿美元。现在,他们开始利用这些盗窃成果来展示他们的军事力量。中国具有扩张主义,是帝国缔造者。他们既阴险又果决。从长远来看,中国是西方最危险的对手。

 

Green 21 hours ago

The Chinese ultimate goal is the world conquest. Towards the east, it will acquire the South and the East China Sea, go into the Pacific and defeat the United States in the near future. Towards the west, it will conquer Europe and Africa with one belt one road strategy. We can understand the behavior of China well with this perspective.

For preventing such a dark future, we should contain China now by economic strategies. Financial policy to wreck China's economy must be carried out.

Even if our economic losses with it are very big, it is better than the World War 3.

中国的终极目标是征服世界。在东方,它将占领南海和东海,进入太平洋并在不久的将来打败美国。在西方,它将以“一带一路”战略征服欧洲和非洲。从这个角度来看,我们不难理解中国的所作所为。

为了防止一个如此黯淡的未来,我们现在应该通过经济战略来遏制中国。必须实施摧毁中国经济的金融政策。

即使我们的经济损失会很大,但这也比第3次世界大战要好。

 

Robert yesterday

Trump created many jobs delivering Chinese goods and pizzas.

特朗普创造了许多配送中国商品和披萨的工作岗位。

 

Zho yesterday

the US has no workers to fill those jobs. the trade with CHINA does create jobs for the US.

美国没有工人来填补这些工作。和中国的贸易确实为美国创造了就业机会。

 

Jabberwocky yesterday

Citizens of all the advanced nations in the world are able to buy anything and everything they need or desire. And many import very little from China. The Chinese want to punish the USA for making them treat US trade fairly. They just reported that they want to defeat us, and they want us to "remember the pain". They are our enemy. We should only trade with nations that are not our enemy. Such as Canada, all of Europe, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, Australia, etc.

The descending order in percentages of total Chinese exports to other nations throughout the world ----- USA-19% Hong Kong-14% Japan-6% SouthKorea-5% Vietnam-3% India-3% Germany-3% Great Britain-3% Netherlands-3% Russia-2% Malasia-2% Singapore-2% Indonesia-2% United Arab Emiratyes-2% Philipines-2% Australia-2% Mexico-2% Canada-1% Saudi Arabia-1% Iran-1% Turkey-1% Italy-1% France-1% Spain-1% Poland-1% Belgium-1% Bangladesh-1% Brazil-1% The rest are all less than 1/2%

世界上所有发达国家的公民都能买到任何他们需要或渴望的东西。中国人想要惩罚美国。他们刚刚还说想打败我们,让我们“不要好了伤疤忘了痛”。他们是我们的敌人。我们应该只和那些不与我们为敌的国家保持贸易。比如加拿大、全欧洲、韩国、台湾、日本、澳大利亚等。

中国对其他国家和地区出口总额的比例,按降序排列——美国- 19%,香港-16% ,日本-6%,韩国-5%,越南--3%, 印度-3% ,德国-3% ,英国-3%, 荷兰-3% Russia-2% 马来西亚-2%, 新加坡-2%, 印尼-2%, 阿联酋-2% ,菲律宾-2%, 澳大利亚-2%,墨西哥-2%,加拿大-1% ,沙特阿拉伯-1%,伊朗-1%, 土耳其-1%, 意大利-1%, 法国-1%, 西班牙-1% ,波兰-1%, 比利时-1% ,孟加拉国1% ,巴西-1% ,其余所有国家占比不足 1/2%

 

Robert Hughes 18 hours ago

So we as Americans have let our trade imbalance get so bad that now other countries have economic power over us on the international market? And people are okay with that and want Trump to do nothing?

我们美国人自己让贸易严重失衡的,结果其他国家的经济实力超过我们?人们对此没有意见就算了,还想让特朗普坐以待毙?

 

Robert yesterday

Unfair trade balances against America are bad for American jobs in certain sectors . Obviously steel and aluminum . It is unfair to the American workers in these two sectors of our economy . President Trump is trying to strike some kind of a balance not to cripple American steel and Aluminum . Don't like it ? Tough , elections have consequences ..

不公平的贸易失衡对美国某些领域的就业非常不利。显然包括钢铝行业,对这两个行业的美国工人是不公平的。特朗普总统正试图达成某种平衡,以免削弱美国的钢铝产业。

 

Emilio yesterday

I don't mind paying more. I want American made products. I have order many thing thru PCH and most of it defective. I will stop buying anything thru PCH, because all items are made in China.

我不介意多花钱。我想买要美国商品。我从PCH订购的很多产品大部分都有问题。我再也不会从PCH买东西了,所有的东西都是中国制造的。

 

Paul yesterday

Oh wait I get it....the little plastic do-dads the Chinese sell in Claire's and Dollar Stores will be hungrily snapped up by Vietnamese people hungry for Christmas ornaments inspired by "Frozen" characters.....Oh snap....the Chinese really do hold all the cards. Better to cave now, Donald.

哦,我懂了....中国在Clair’s和一元店里卖的那些塑料玩意儿将会被那些渴望圣诞装饰品的越南人抢购一空。哦,....中国人确实握了一手好牌。特朗普,最好现在就投降吧。

 

William 20 hours ago

Walmart won't know what to do with this tariff !

面对这些关税,沃尔玛不知道该咋办了。

 

Lib Divorced From Reality 20 hours ago

China was on the verge of financial collapse in 2015-2016. They build empty cities with borrowed money they don't have. In a producer/consumer world...the US is the consumer and China is the producer. The producer needs the consumer...the consumer can always go elsewhere.

2015-2016年,中国处于金融崩溃的边缘。他们用借来的钱建造一座座空城。在一个生产者/消费者的世界里……美国是消费者,中国是生产者。中国需要美国,而美国还有其他很多选择。

 

Jabberwocky yesterday

This is totally globalist propaganda.

这完全是支持全球主义者的宣传。

 

Paul yesterday

Now would be an excellent time to trust the patriotic instincts of president Trump. The interests that have turned the US media into marionettes,...……. not so much.

是时候信任特朗普总统的爱国天性了。利益驱使已经把美国媒体变成了牵线木偶。

 

CorinthoMutTrex 7 hours ago

1 Billion vs 1 Million. Who's holding ace ?

10亿对100万,谁占优势?

 

Tony yesterday

Or China could stop mandatory IP transfer and co-ownership. That is really the core issue Trump has with China. If that can be resolved, he might not car so much about Chinese tariffs being lopsided. IP theft is the primary loss of revenue.

或者中国可以停止强制性的知识产权转让。这是特朗普与中国的核心问题。如果这一问题能够得到解决,他可能不会那么在意中国的关税不平衡。知识产权盗窃是最主要的收入损失。

 

Kurt 7 hours ago

If the US companies foot the bill the US consumer will pay more. I have no problem with buying more expensive American goods. We would not buy as often but, the products would be more durable.

如果美国公司买单,美国消费者将要多掏钱。我不介意购买更贵的美国商品。买东西不会像以前一样频繁,但美国商品也更耐用啊。

 

Hooch 17 hours ago

the U S sent the factories and the technology to china and now there is no turning back. t rump wants to save the jobs of the ZTE china owned corporation. now that is some real bull shi$$%%^^.

Vote Democrat

美国把工厂和技术送到了中国,现在已经没有回头路了。特朗普想保住中国中兴通讯的就业机会,真是扯淡。

给皿煮党投票。

 

Dawwwggg 16 hours ago

that it probably true. I ordered several items from Amazon recently. ALL of them were made in China. When I worked for the Fed. Gov. ALL of the t.v. sets and other electronic devices were..you guessed it...made in Japan or China.

可能是真的。我最近从亚马逊订购了几件商品,都是中国制造的。以前我为联邦政服工作时,电视机和其他电子设备,不是日本制造的,就是中国制造的。

 

WHOCARES 14 hours ago

US is trying whatever it takes to slow down China's growth even with the price of hurting Americans. By the American First is same as Made in China 2025 which means my priority is my national interest.

美国正在竭尽所能减缓中国的经济增长,即使代价是伤害美国人。“美国制造”和“中国制造2025”一样,意味着国家利益至上。

 

Schnogles yesterday

Wal-mart will go under.

沃尔玛将会破产

 

ANDY L 8 hours ago

the US doesn't even produce consumer electronics..how can they justify putting tariffs on Chinese hitech goods to prevent a flood of cheap Chinese electronics products? china is moving towards a consumer and service economy. they are investing billions in automating their factories with robots. manufacturing will still be in china.

美国甚至都不生产消费性电子产品。他们如何解释对中国高科技产品征收关税以防止中国廉价电子产品的泛滥?中国正在转向消费和服务型经济。他们正投资数十亿美元,启用机器人,实现工厂自动化。制造业仍将在中国。

 

Thomas yesterday

what is china supposed to buy off us thanks to american companies moving production to china we dont make anything here anymore

中国要向我们买什么?多亏了美国公司把生产线搬到中国,现在我们这什么也不产了。

 

Ben yesterday

China does not hold all the Aces! The US could clearly do without cheap chinese goods! Yes, we would pay more, but we would not really miss out on anything!!! Walmarts, Target, and the like would have problems. But I think it would be a boon for local businesses. They would be able to move to new goods and supliers much quicker. And that just might be good for the US!!!

中国并不占尽上风! 没有中国的廉价商品,美国照样过得好好的!是的,我们将多掏钱!!!沃尔马,塔吉特等等可能都会有麻烦。但我认为这对本土企业来说也是个福音。他们会很快找到新供应商的,对美国来说可能是件好事。

首页 > 美国 » 美媒: 中国何以在中美全面贸易战中“占尽上风”

()
分享到: