三泰虎

世界银行: 气候变化将降低6亿印度人的生活水平

Climate change will hit living standards of 600 million Indians: World Bank

世界银行:气候变化将降低6亿印度人的生活水平

NEW DELHI: Unchecked climate change will dent India’s GDP by 2.8 per cent and depress the living standards of nearly half the population by 2050, with people living in the severe “hotspot” districts of central India, particularly Vidarbha, staring at the prospect of an over 10 per cent dip in economic consumption.

新德里:尚未明确的气候变化将削弱印度的国内生产总值的2.8%,至2050年,有一半人口的生活水平会降低。居住在印度中部严重“热点”地区的人们,特别是维达巴,则有显著的10%的经济消费下降。

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These are the findings of a first-of-its-kind World Bank study that quantifies the economic impacts of rising temperatures and changes in rainfall in different parts of the country due to global warming.

这些是世界银行首次进行的一项相关研究的结果,该研究量化了由于全球变暖导致该国不同地区气温上升和降雨量变化的经济影响。

The study, South Asia’s Hotspots, released on Thursday, projects a 2 per cent fall in the country’s GDP — in terms of per capita consumption expenditures — even if the 2015 Paris Agreement goals of containing global warming to 2 degrees C is achieved.

这项名为南亚热点的研究报告周四公布称,即使达到了2015年巴黎协议的目标将全球变暖控制在2摄氏度,就人均消费支出而言,该国的国内生产总值下降2%。

A 2.8 per cent drop in GDP, as projected in the business-as-usual scenario, will cost India $1.1 trillion by 2050. The loss in the severe hotspot districts, with an average 9.8 per cent drop in consumption, will amount to over $400 billion, the study says.

该研究称,按照一切如常的情况下,GDP下降2.8%将导致至2050年印度将花费1.1万亿美元。严重热点地区的平均消费下降9.8%,超过400美元的损失。

What is a climate hotspot? 什么是气候热点地区?

It's a location where gradual changes in average temperature and rainfall patterns will have negative impacts on living standards in future

这是一个平均气温和降雨模式的逐渐变化将来会对生活水平产生负面影响的地区。

The report finds that inland regions are at far higher risk of economic losses due to rising temperatures than coastal or hilly areas, with the maximum impact likely to be felt in central and north India. Among states, Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh are projected to witness over 9 per cent dip in living standards by 2050 in the “carbon-intensive” or business-as-usual scenario.

报告认为,由于气温上升,内陆地区经济损失的风险远高于沿海或丘陵地区,最大的影响将出现 在印度中部和北部地区。Chhattisgarh and Madhya Pradesh可预见在各州中,到2050年,若是“碳密集生产方式”或“一切照旧”, 会有9%的生活水平下降。

The Vidarbha region, a ground-zero of farm distress in the country, is projected to be in the centre of climate-related misery as well. Seven of the 10 major “hotspot” districts mentioned in the report, are in Vidarbha. In each of these districts, unchecked climate change could led to over 11 per cent dip in living standards by 2050.

维达巴地区是该国农业危机的一个中心点,预计也将成为气候苦难的中心。报告中提到的10个主要“热点”区中有7个在维达巴。在所有这些地区,到2050年,未确定的气候变化可能导致生活水平下降11%以上。

“Temperature rise is a slow-moving disaster that’s not talked about much,” said economist Muthukumara Mani, the lead author of the study. “A lot of focus of climate change studies is on extreme events so people tend to ignore these gradual changes happening for the last 50-60 years.”

该研究的首席作者,经济学家Muthukumara Mani说:“温度上升是一个缓慢的灾难,谈论的不是很多。 “气候变化研究的重点在于极端变化,因此人们往往忽视了过去50-60年间发生的这些微小变化。”

The effects of temperature rise could be substantial, with implications for agricultural productivity, health, migration and other factors, says the report. By 2050, annual average temperatures in India are estimated to increase 1-2 degrees C under the climate-sensitive scenario (where action is taken to curb emissions) and 1.5-3 degrees C under the carbon-intensive scenario.

该报告称,温度上升的影响可能很大,对农业生产力,健康,移民和其他因素都有影响。到2050年,根据气候敏感的情况(采取措施遏制排放),印度的年平均气温估计会上升1至2摄氏度,而在碳密集生产方式下,印度的年平均气温将上升1至3摄氏度。

The study analysed climate data in combination with household surveys to arrive at how changes in average weather are likely to affect living standards. It found that nearly 600 million people in India today live at places that will become moderate or severe hotspots by 2050 under the unchecked climate-change scenario.

该研究结合家庭调查分析了气候数据,以了解平均天气的变化如何影响生活水平。研究发现,在未确认的气候变化状况下,至2050年印度有将近6亿人生活将生活在中度或严重热点的地方。

“Our methodology has been extensively peer-reviewed, both inside and outside the World Bank. We are very confident of the robustness of the analysis,” Mani said.

“我们的方法已经在世界银行内外进行了广泛的同行评议。我们对分析的稳健性非常有信心,“Mani说。

The study has drawn up hotspot maps of India, 2050, based on both the carbon-intensive and climate-sensitive scenarios. The carbon-intensive scenario shows far more severe hotspots, places likely to see an over 8 per cent dip in living standards, underlining the huge economic losses India stands to avoid if the world takes action on GHGs.

该研究根据碳密集和气候敏感的情景制定了2050年的印度热点地图。碳密集型情景展现了更为严重的热点地区,这些地区的生活水平可能会下降8%以上,这表明如果世界对温室气体采取行动,印度将避免巨大的经济损失。

“Our work points the way for policymakers. They can choose to invest in areas that are more impacted by warming and make best use of their resources for climate change,” explained Mani.

“我们的工作为决策者指明了方向。他们可以选择投资于受气候变暖影响较大的地区,并充分利用其资源应对气候变化,“Mani解释道。

印度时报读者的评论:

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://jblasi.com/45414.html  译者:天一生水

外文:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/climate-change-will-hit-living-standards-of-600m-indians-world-bank/articleshow/64786277.cms

Shail

People worldwide need to become environmentally conscious. Indians need to think about overpopulation as well.

世界各地人民应该更有环保意识,印度人也需要考虑人口过剩问题。

 

Sanjoy Pandey

Scientists are warning about global warming and ecological imbalance since 50 60 years. But human response is poor to take corrective action.

自60年代以来,科学家们正在警告全球变暖和生态失衡。但是人类的反应很差,不能采取纠正措施。

 

Ashok Kriplani

Our British India now Turned into the colony of Government of India will never learn anything other than corruption which is blind enough to checkmate such changes.

Root cause of all the things is the massive corruption under which India is reeling and bleeding, and thus insensitivity of the policy makers or inducers at every level of politics, bureaucracy and judiciary.

英属印度现在成为印度受政府控制,除了贪污以外,不会学习其它任何东西,这种盲目足以遏制这种变化。

所有事情的根源在于印度大规模的腐败,印度在流血,不知所措。因此政治官僚和司法部门的政策制定者或引导者都缺乏敏感性。

 

ONE LINER Challenge

BRINGING DOWN CONCRETE JUNGLES AND REBUILDING GREEN JUNGLES IS THE ONLY WAY FORWARD- NO FURTHER CONSTRUCTION SHOULD BE PERMITTED IN ANY MAJOR CITIES- EVERY KM IN ANY CITY SHOULD HAVE LUNG SPACE LIKE PARKS.1.1 TRILLION WILL DEVALUE INDIA LITERALLY TO A VERY POOR COUNTRY.

推倒混凝土丛林,建造绿色丛林是唯一出路。之后不允许主要城市再建任何建筑-每个城市应该有公园,1.1万亿会让印度成为贫穷的国家。

 

Zubair Ahmed

Do something for population, freeze it immediately.

在人口上应该采取些措施,马上冻结人口增长。

 

XXXYYYZZZ

BJP busy with politics. Don''t care on climate change

印度人民常忙于政治。一点都不关心气候变化

 

Sugath Palan

The govt has to initiate aggressive rain water retention and tree planting all over the country.

政府不得不在全国各地发起积极的雨水回收和植树活动。

 

XXXYYYZZZ

Modi Govt sleeping on climate change

莫迪政府在气候变化问题上装睡

 

Vishal Ghag

consequences of mother nature... when human being will understand... how much we have polluted environment ... what we are giving future to our next generation...

大自然的后果,当人民明白过来的时候,环境已经被破坏到什么程度,我们给未来的下一代留下什么

 

Dr Kc

Isro and other Indian scientist's should release a statement regarding this , dnt believe foreigners they are cheat.

Isro和其它印度科学家应该就此发肯声明,不要相信外国人,是骗人的。

 

Antibhakt6

Yess yes mitron. lets cut 17000 trees in delhi and build huge statues. cchhhooittyya feku modi

是的。让我们砍掉1万7千棵树,建造雕像。

 

Antibhakt

But then according to Feku the scientist there is no climate change, we have changed

但根据科学家说,没有气候变化,是我们变了。

 

Tara Chand

Make these areas green by plants trees of various types.It will bring down temperature and increase rainfall.

River linking planes may be revived again.They are more benificial.

在这里种上各种绿树。就会降低温度,增加降雨。

河流因树木再生。这些都是很有利的。

 

Altaf Hyder

There are many burning issues for the govt to focus and find a solution but BJP led govt is always talking nonsense issues like mandir masjid, cow vigilantism, blaming congress etc. Nothing is going right under Modi rule. Obviously he is not good for India.

对于政府来说,关注和寻找解决方案是很棘手的。但是人民党领导的政府总是在一些无聊的问题诸如庙,牛的制度,抱怨国会等。莫迪领导之下没有对的地方。很明显他对印度无利。

 

Roushon S

Nothing will happen to India! We neither have lower limit nor have upper limit of living standard! In my country a man carry his dead wife or child on his solder and walk for 20kms and in the same country wife of a businessman has the most luxury life in the world...

印度什么都不会发生。我们的生活水平没有下限,也没有上限!在我的国家,一个男人用自己焊接的工具带着他死去的妻儿步行20公里,而同一个国家,商人的妻子拥有最奢侈的生活

 

Ramendra Chandra

Electric cars,bikes and renewable energy, should be the answer, should leapfrog that.

电动汽车,自行车和可再生能源,应该是解决方法,得跳至这个层面。

 

Michaelalok

ME-SEEMS, PEOPLE WORLDWIDE NEED TO BECOME ENVIRONMENTALLY CONSCIOUS. IN ADDITION TO ABOVE, HINDUSTANIS NEED TO THINK ABOUT OVERPOPULATION AS WELL.

我看,全球人民都需要有环保意识。除此以外,印度人要考虑人口过剩。

 

Arabinda Datta

In India people are more concerned and worried about political change rather than global warming or climate change.

在印度人民更关注和担心政治,而不是全球变暖和气候变化。

 

Mohammad Yusuf

What living standards? India has no living standards. All I see is filth trash garbage and open defacation on streets. India is a filthy dump full of beggars and street hawkers. No expatriate wants to come to India. Those who are forced to come here get hardship allowance.

什么生活水平?印度哪有生活标准。我看的只有垃圾和街道上的污染。印度到处是乞丐和街头小贩。没有人想来印度。被迫来的人都拿到了艰苦津贴。

 

GOPINATH BHARATH

greedy people are going to destroy the nature of this nation.instead of living with the nature, they are destroying forest, hills, mountains,rivers.now nature shall hit back and nobody can control it... greening is the only solution with taking back all the encroached land,bu that needs guts and. patriotism.....

贪婪的人会破坏这个国家的自然生态,他们破坏森林,丘陵,山脉,河流,而不是同大自然共存。现在大自然回击了,没人能控制……绿化是唯一的解决方案,退回被侵占的土地,但这需要有点胆量和很强烈的爱国主义……

 

Ramaswamy Vaithinathaswamy

Why every International Research Wing is targetting only India wrt this or that? Will such changes not affect any other Nation?

为什么每个国际研究机构都只针对印度呢?这种改变是否会影响其它国家?

 

KAMAL

Still if we do not wake and stop doing cruelty with wild life, environment and cutting trees the results would be unimaginable . Nature would never forgive and would rather punish us

但如果我们不唤醒人们停止对野生生物,环境和树木的残酷行为,结果将是难以想象的。大自然永远不会原谅,而是会惩罚我们。

 

Sanatan Issar

The Doom''s Day is nearing.

厄运即将到来。

 

Amlan Kiron Banerjee

The climate didn't change our tolerance towards climate has changed!

气候没有改变,是我们对气候的容忍改变!

 

TANUJ ADITYA

God is angry with bad human beings

Punishment about to come

Humans about to rise

上帝发怒于人类

惩罚即将到来

人类也将崛起

 

Atilla Hun

Not only Indians it has started to hit the globe and this is a irreversible cycle and WE are collectively responsible for this

不仅仅只有印度人开始冲击全球,这是个不可逆的循环,我们对此负有共同的责任

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