三泰虎

印媒: 期望获得更大的全球影响力,中国现在踩了“刹车”

China taps the brakes on its global push for influence

中国停止全球化推动

SHANGHAI: China has spent nearly five years steering an ever-growing stream of hundreds of billions of dollars to a bold plan to gain greater global influence by funding big projects across Asia, Eastern Europe and Africa.

上海:中国花了五年的时间,在亚洲、东欧和非洲支助了很多大型项目,不间断地投资了亿万美金,以期望获得更大的全球影响力。

Now, Beijing is starting to tap the brakes.

然而现在,中国开始停止了步伐。

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图片来源:印度时报

The value of the deals that Chinese companies are striking under the country's big global plan — called the Belt and Road Initiative + — is smaller than a year ago, according to new data. Chinese officials themselves are sounding a cautious note, voicing worries that Chinese institutions need to be careful how much they lend under the program — and make sure their international borrowers can pay it back.

根据最新数据显示,中国公司在全球计划『一带一路』下达成的价值比一年前小了许多。中国官员们给出更为谨慎的结论,告知中国的机构须特别小心借出的款项,并要确保该国有能力偿还。

"Current international conditions are very uncertain, with lots of economic risks and large fluctuations for interest rates in newly emerged markets," said Hu Xiaolian, the chairwoman of the Export-Import Bank of China, a state-controlled lender that plays a big role in financing the projects, at a forum this month in Shanghai. "Our enterprises and Belt and Road Initiative countries will face financing difficulties."

中国进出口银行在资助这些项目上扮演重要角色,在本月上海论坛上,其董事长胡晓炼表示:『目前的国际形势不明朗,在新出现的市场上存在大量的经济风险和波动。我们的企业和一带一路国家将会面临融资困难。』

China has begun a broad, interagency review of how many deals have already been done, on what financial terms and with which countries, say people close to Chinese economic policymaking, who asked to speak on the condition of anonymity because the effort has not been made public.

因为努力的效果尚未公布,中国经济决策人士被要求匿名发表目前的情况,他们表示中国已经就金融形式,资助国家开始了更全面的跨部门的重审。

American and European officials have long worried that Belt and Road represents a diplomatic and economic power grab by Beijing, fueled by its vast government wealth and helped by the Communist Party's laser like focus on achieving long-term goals.

美国和欧洲官员长期以来一直担心一带一路在政府强大财富以及的帮助,成就中国外交和经济实力。

Under the initiative, Chinese government-controlled lenders offer big chunks of money — usually through loans or financial guarantees — to other countries to build big infrastructure projects like highways, rail lines and power plants. That money often comes with the requirement that Chinese companies be heavily involved in the planning and construction, throwing them a lot of business.

在一带一路政策下,中国控股银行提供了大量的资金,通常是通过贷款或金融担保,给到其它国家建设大型的公共设施比如高速公路、铁路和发电厂。附带的条件是中国的企业大量参与到规则和建设当中,这带给他们大量的业务。

But even with its financial firepower, China has its limits. Its economy is showing signs of slowing, and it is in the middle of a trade war with the United States + . Beijing is struggling to tame domestic debt problems — problems an international lending spree certainly hasn't helped.

即使有了金融的支持,中国也还有局限。它的经济已经出现放缓的迹象,而且正处于与美国的贸易战中。中国正努力抑制国内债务问题,大量的国际债务问题无疑起不到帮助的作用。

Too much overseas activity risks creating wasteful white elephants that can drag down Chinese companies and local partners alike. All types of deals are now angling to be associated with the Belt and Road Initiative like a theme park in Indonesia and brewery in the Czech Republic.

太多海外活动的风险造成了华而不实的浪费,会拖垮中国企业和本地的合作者。所有的合作开始与一带一路相关,比如印度尼西亚主题公园和捷克啤酒厂。

Further, profligate lending can worsen relations with other countries rather than help them. New governments in places like Malaysia and Sri Lanka have questioned why their predecessors borrowed so much from Beijing. 此外,无度的放贷会造成与其它国家的关系恶化,而非帮助。马来西亚和斯里兰卡等地的新政府对他们的前任为何从中国借来那么多钱提出质疑。

This year, some Chinese officials have expressed some concerns about lending under the program.

今年,一些中国官员已经开始担忧计划里的贷款。

"Ensuring debt sustainability — that is very important," Yi Gang, the new governor of China's central bank, said at a conference in Beijing in late April.

确保债务的可持续性,这是非常重要的,中国央行新行长易纲在北京的一次会议上说。

While Belt and Road activity remains huge, it has certainly become more restrained, according to official data. In the first five months of 2018, Chinese companies signed contracts worth $36.2 billion in business, down nearly 6 percent from the same period a year ago.

官方数据显示,尽管一带一路活动仍然很多,但无疑有更多的局限。2018年的头五个月,中国企业签定了价值362亿美元的合同,比一年前同期下降了近6%。

Deal signings were down at this time last year from 2016, too, though by a lesser magnitude. Much of that downturn stemmed from big companies and governments' saving their powder for a major Belt and Road forum held in May 2017 in Beijing that was attended by , China's top leader, President Vladimir Putin of Russia and other major political figures. After the forum, activity surged.

自2016年以来,与去年这个时候相比,合作迹象也有变弱,规模更小。低迷的大部分原因是大公司和政府为2017年五月一带一路峰会做准备。中国最高领导人、俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京和其他主要政治人物都出席了这次会议。论坛结束后, 活动激增。

"I sensed that the level of enthusiasm about BRI had certainly shifted down a few notches relative to last year," said Eswar Prasad, a Cornell economist and former head of the International Monetary Fund's China division who recently visited Beijing and had extensive conversations with Chinese financial policymakers.

康奈尔经济学家和国际货币基金组织中国分部前负责人埃斯华·普拉萨德表示: "我感觉到, 对比去年,热情水平肯定有所下降," 他近期到访北京并与中国金融政策制定者进行大量对话。

Project activity could pick up later this year, of course. But an uncertain global economic outlook has given Beijing even more reasons to be cautious.

当然,今年的晚些时候,活动可能会回升。但是全球经济前景不明朗,中国会更加谨慎。

A protracted trade war between the United States and other countries, particularly China, could shake confidence and stunt growth. The United States has pushed up short-term interest rates, making it more costly to borrow money. In the past, interest rate increases in the United States have sometimes caused financial turbulence elsewhere, especially in emerging markets.

一场持久的贸易战在美国与其它国家,特别是中国间展开,这可能动摇信心和阻碍增长。美国提高了短期利率,使借贷成本更高。在过去,美国的加息有时会导致其他地方的金融动荡, 特别是在新兴市场。

Belt and Road lending seemed a sure thing when the effort began under Xi in 2013. Loans would be long-term, giving borrowers time to pay them back. China also tends to extend loans mainly to countries with significant natural resources. If a resource-rich developing country had trouble repaying its loans, it could offer goods like oil, iron ore or even food instead.

一带一路似乎是个很确定的事情。贷款可以是长期的,给借款者足够的时间偿还。中国也倾向于将贷款主要发放到拥有丰富自然资源的国家。如果一个资源丰富的发展中国家在偿还贷款方面遇到困难, 那么它就可以提供石油、铁矿石甚至食品之类的商品.

But part of the problem now is that no one — not even the Chinese government — has a comprehensive picture of the lending so far. The Finance Ministry and the state-controlled banking system have poured money into projects from the Czech Republic to Laos, and from South Africa to Kazakhstan. The China Banking and Insurance Regulatory Commission estimated this spring that Chinese banks had lent $200 billion for 2,600 projects.

但现在的部分问题是,目前没有人- 甚至是中国-都没有全面了解贷款情况。财政部和国家控股的银行系统已经将资金投入到从捷克,老挝以及南非,哈萨克斯坦的项目。中国银行业和保险业监督管理委员会今年春季估计, 中国各银行为2600个项目提供了2000亿美元的贷款。

Various government agencies have also issued extensive export guarantees, loan guarantees and other financial arrangements as part of the initiative, although some of these overlap with the bank loans.

各政府机构还发布了大量的出口担保、贷款担保和其他财务安排, 作为这项倡议的一部分, 尽管其中有些与银行贷款重叠。

A Belt and Road slowdown may also be natural. Official data show Chinese companies are completing projects at nearly the same pace as they are signing deals for new ones, suggesting the initiative may simply be settling into a sustainable rhythm.

一带一路的活跃性下降也可能是自然的。官方数据显示, 中国企业因为它们也在签署新的协议,正在以几乎相同的速度完成项目, 这表明一带一路可能只是纯粹的简单的可持续的进程。

"They are still very actively promoting Belt and Road," said Andrew Mackenzie, the chief executive of BHP Billiton, an Australian mining giant that is among the biggest exporters of iron ore to Chinese steel mills, which are among the intended beneficiaries of Belt and Road.

『他们仍然非常积极地推动一带一路』, 必和必拓首席执行官安德鲁麦肯锡说,该公司是澳大利亚矿业巨头, 是中国钢厂最大的铁矿石出口国之一, 该公司是一带一路预期受益者之一.

Still, some Chinese officials are looking more closely at where the money is ending up.

一些中国官员仍在密切关注这些钱最终会怎样。

For example, they have been reassessing the country's financial exposure in Africa, a continent with immense natural resources that has lured a wide range of Chinese energy and construction companies, people close to Chinese policymaking said.

据知情人士说,他们一直在重新评估该国在非洲的金融风口,这个大陆有丰富的自然资源,吸引了一堆中国的能源和建造企业。

Belt and Road has been viewed with increasing skepticism by multilateral institutions as well. They have warned that developing countries should not incur excessive debts.

一带一路政策也受到越来越多机构的质疑。他们警告说发展中国家不应该有这么多债务。

"The first priority," Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, said at the Beijing conference in April, "is that Belt and Road only travels to where it is really needed."

国际货币基金组织 (IMF) 总裁克里斯汀拉加德在4月北京会议上表示: 『一带一路的首要任务是去到真正需要它的地方。』

印度时报读者的评论:

原创翻译:三泰虎 http://jblasi.com/45434.html 译者:天一生水

外文:https://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/china/china-taps-the-brakes-on-its-global-push-for-influence/articleshow/64804588.cms

Vijay Banga

US, China, Japan, Europe are worried about jobs for its people while India is fighting its own ##vital segment ,Dalits, Moslems, Sikhs and other minorities. Nowhere there is such problem.

美国, 中国, 日本, 欧洲担心其人民的就业机会, 而在印度:达利特人, , 锡克教徒和其他 等之间相互斗争。其它地方没有这样的问题。

 

Ajit Kankariya

Every country was,is and will be allowed to gain supremacy only to the extent USA wants. This world is simulation - created by USA and allies.

每个国家曾经,现在和将来所能获得的权利是受美国控制的。这个世界由美国和其盟国创造。

 

Aries Fernandes

only a person like Trump can make China comes to its knees

只有像特朗普这样的人才能让中国低头

 

Sharad Lotlikar

Chinese economy is heavily dependent on trade! If major importers put brake on their import from China it will be in serious trouble! That is the reason it wants peace with its neighbours!

中国经济严重依赖贸易!如果主要进口商停止从中国进口,这将是严重的麻烦!这就是它想要与邻国和平共处的原因!

 

Vivek Sood

Meanwhile in india people are fighting over animals and religion . Truly a 3rd world mentality

同时,印度人民还同动物和宗教斗争。真的是第三世界国家的心智。

 

Akhil Venugopal

They will do it atlast.we need to start our own mega projects rather than downsizing their development trajectory

他们终究会这样做,我们需要开启自己的大型项目而不是缩小发展的规模。

 

Vijay Banga

India is safe, it has no #belt problems, not now, not tomorrow, never ever..It has lost all races

印度是安全的, 它没有『带』的问题, 现在没有,明天没有,永远不会有,它已经失去所有种族

 

Amit

Hope chinese will give up their dream to rule world and respect sovereignty of every country.

希望中国会放弃统治世界的梦想,尊重每个国家的主权。

 

Ekdesi

US is also hit by this trade war, but it is a bigger punch for China.

美国也受到这场贸易战的打击,但对中国影响更大。

 

Kalyan Revanur

Good to see the downfall of OBOR as is an acid test for China Pak relations. No one wants to be friends here when their financial need is not served.

一带一路的衰弱是对中巴关系的一场考验。在这的没有愿意成为朋友的,因为他们的经济需求未得到满足。

 

AJAY MEHTA

IT WAS WISE ON OUR PART NOT TO JOIN OBOR

JAI HIND

我们的政党没有加入一带一路,真是太明智了。

胜利属于印度

 

Anil

Chinese have invented and entered their own maze and now are finding it difficult to find way out . With trade war bugle sounded by US , Chinese need India more than ever to get out of this storm brewing in China tea pot . With uncertainty over economy in almost most countries , this ambitious project may not see light at end of the tunnel soon .

中国进入自己制造的迷宫,现在出不来了。随着贸易战号角响起, 中国比以往任何时候都需要印度摆脱这场在中国酿造的风暴。由于几乎大多数国家经济的不确定性, 这个雄心勃勃的计划可能不会很快看到光明。

 

Sushil Kumar

Good new for India. Less worry now - the Road and Pakistan base will be their pipe dream now.

对印度来说是好消息。更不用担心一带一路,巴基斯坦会成为他们的白日梦。

 

Axa Aga

china is a thug, chor, deceptive, cunning, conning group of people,fit to be annihilated . . .

中国是个暴徒, 欺骗、狡猾、狡诈, 应该被消灭.....

 

Sameer Sameer

Wait and watch this entire China will get splited into small countries under the leadership of Modiji. Iss baar bhi Modi sarkar.... Jai Hind

在莫迪统治时期,等着看中国分裂成小国家。胜利属于印度

 

Ranga Ramanathan

Welldone Trump. These monsters are dangerous to entire humanity.

做的好特朗普。这些禽兽对人类是个威胁。

 

Bosedk

China is the biggest bubble which will burst one day

中国泡沫最大,总有一天会破灭。

 

Vivek Sood

This china became rich thanks to Bill Clinton and other liberal american politician who shipped all manufacturing jobs to China in early 1990,s

现在的中国变得富强要感谢比尔·克林顿和其它 自由党政客,是他们在90年代初为中国提供了很多工作机会。

 

Tanmay Chakrabarti

China follows a pragmatic approach in accordance with the situation and India has to take the full advantage of the situation. Time and tide waits for none.

中国按照国情遵循务实的方法,印度必须充分利用形势。时间不等人。

三泰虎原创译文,禁止转载!:首页 > 印度人看中国 » 印媒: 期望获得更大的全球影响力,中国现在踩了“刹车”

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